FXUS61 KBOX 110820
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE STORM
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
310 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS FINALLY STARTING TO FALL...BUT REMAIN AOA FREEZING ACROSS MOST
AREAS EVEN UP TO NE MA/S CENTRAL NH. COLDEST TEMP AT 30 DEGREES AT
KEEN WITH 31 DEGS AT KORE AT 07Z. DO NOTE PRECIP MIXING
WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS N CENTRAL/NE CT BUT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP REACHING UP TO CENTRAL-N MA/S NH AT 07Z. WHERE MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS FALLING...IT IS MAINLY RAIN.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODELS...ALL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRES WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND...OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE OFF
THE SE U.S. ALONG WITH AREA OF C/G LIGHTNING WELL E OF FL COAST AT
07Z. ALSO SEE MID LEVEL JET WORKING INTO THIS AREA ACROSS SE U.S.
COAST ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SURFACE AND BL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A GOOD
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS
AND ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO FALL SLOWLY SINCE
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ARE STARTING TO VEER TO W...BUT STILL REMAINING
AOA FREEZING. DO SEE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -5C TO -7C...BUT NOT A LOT
OF PRECIP FOR THIS TO MIX DOWN...AND W-SW WINDS HAVE REMAINED AOB 10
KT...NOT THE GREATEST FOR MIXING EITHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MAYBE A FEW DEGS FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
FALL...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS SW NH AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL AND W MA. THE
HIGHS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN WILL FALL BACK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...THOUGH...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL
WORK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
WITH THE MODELS INDICATING THE LOW WILL FORM WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AND MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY...EXPECT PRECIP
TO REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
IT WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE AS TEMPS REMAIN
BORDERLINE...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO N BUT WITH THE LOW MOVING FURTHER S AND OFFSHORE...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO DELAY
THE COLDEST AIR FROM WORKING IN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON ALL THIS...HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MA/SW NH AND THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WELL AS RI/SE MA ONTO
THE LOWER CAPE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LOCALES THAT RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES...BUT THAT WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN.
TONIGHT...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OFFSHORE WELL SE OF CAPE COD. WILL
SEE ARCTIC AIR WORK IN AS H85 TEMPS DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...N-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WILL SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS E MA EARLY...THEN
COULD SEE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W MA WITH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
THE 20S ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS SUN AND SUN NIGHT
* MODERATING TEMPS NEXT WEEK
* LIGHT PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK
A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER CAPE INTO SUNDAY
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK TO THE NW. HIGHER ELEVATION FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT PERIOD. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE TO THE N SUN
AND SUN NIGHT SO THIS WILL JUST BE A GLANCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BUT
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS FLOW DEAMPLIFIES WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. MON TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT MAXES WILL LIKELY
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE
40S EXCEPT UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...BUT DEVELOPING WEAK
OVERRUNNING MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
SOMETIME TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AROUND 06Z...THOUGH NOTING
CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR AT FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS N CT/RI AS
STEADIER PRECIP MOVES IN. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
CENTRAL-NORTHERN MA/S NH WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N
CT/RI/SE MA. MOST AREAS REPORTING RAIN AT 06Z...BUT TEMPS WILL COOL
ENOUGH TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS.
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA WITH LOCAL
LIFR THROUGH 18Z. WILL SEE MAINLY -SN...WITH -RA CHANGING OVER THE
SN ACROSS E MA...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS E MA/RI DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...THEN WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
05Z-07Z...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT
MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR AFTER 13Z...THEN TAPERING OFF
AROUND MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER WITH VFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT LOW PROB OF
MVFR OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SEAS BRIEFLY AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS...
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW-N TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT RAIN OR
MIXED RAIN/SNOW MAINLY FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD REDUCING VSBYS ON THE
WATERS.
TODAY...SEAS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY REACHING 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE
END OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO INCREASE...GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY. SNOW LIKELY OVER THE WATERS...
REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT N GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SO HAVE HOISTED THE GALE WARNING THERE. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE NIGHT ON THE REMAINING WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY. CONDITIONS FOR A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LOOKING LESS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISHING LATE SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY THEN
DIMINISHING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-235-237-251-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
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