FXUS61 KBTV 110925
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
REGION. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING ACROSS THE
VALLEYS TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TEMPS THRU
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
ACCUMULATION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIGGING ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ATTM...WITH RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
ENTERING THE SLV. THIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP COLD FRNT
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FA TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLW...CAA SQUEEZING OUT REMAINING LLVL
MOISTURE...AND SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM FRNT...WL PRODUCE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACRS OUR CWA. OVERALL TOTAL QPF WL BE
<0.10"...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE MOISTURE IN SNOW GROWTH REGION AND
HIGH FLUFF FACTOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE. WL
MENTION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OR SO IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. TEMPS
WL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY...AS MODELS TEND TO HANDLE LLVL CAA VERY
POORLY. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...TEMPS ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN OTTAWA AND WELL BLW ZERO NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
ALSO...TEMPS AT HIGHGATE DROPPED 10 DEGREES IN 1 HOUR...SHOWING
THE MAGNITUDE OF LLVL CAA. THIS AIRMASS WL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACRS THE
SLV/DACKS...FALLING INTO THE TEENS ACRS THE CPV/VT DURING THE
DAYTIME. ALSO...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR FA FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRISK NW WINDS WL
DEVELOP AND CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -5 AND
-15F. DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND WARM GREAT LAKE
WATERS...EXPECT LLVL TEMPS TO MODIFY ACRS OUR REGION.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES NOSES INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME CLRING SKIES
ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED WITH 925MB TEMPS BTWN -16C AND
-20C...SUPPORT VERY COLD TEMPS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM -20F SLK TO
NEAR 0F CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...STRONG SFC LOW PRES (970MB) MOVES INTO
EASTERN CANADA WHILE SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON TEMPS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 5H VORT ALOFT AND SOME
MID LVL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH
SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPS WL BE MUCH BLW NORMAL WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-21C AND -23C AND 925MB TEMPS BTWN -20 AND -22C. THESE LLVL TEMPS
COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY FLW WL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE AT VSF.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...WHILE LLVL WAA DEVELOPS BY MONDAY. THIS LIFT ALONG WITH
SOME 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE WL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES...MAYBE EVEN A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACRS WESTERN
ZNS...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE TEENS MTNS/NEK TO 20S CPV/SLV.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD TO BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ALTHOUGH A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE IN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF ADDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST. AGAIN WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...LOOKING AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE REGION WILL ENHANCE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SCT MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NRN MTNS...AND OCCASIONALLY AT KMPV/KSLK DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...PRIMARILY VFR WITH WEAK/MODEST SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. SCT ON AND OFF MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE AT KSLK THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO LK ONTARIO SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/BOYD
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