FXUS61 KOKX 310728
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGHING WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
REGION WILL SPELL A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND PLEASANT DAY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
80/LOWER 80S AREA WIDE. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN WEAK FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PERIOD BEING DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH SHARPENING OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...HINDERING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUN AFT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE
CWA FROM COMBINED SHORTWAVE/DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD SUN NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE
STATIONARY HIGH. WITH WEAK FLOW AND RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUNDINGS...ANY PULSE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING PROBLEMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
MONDAY UNDER LINGERING TROUGHING...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE
SHORE.
ONSHORE FLOW OF A SLOWLY MODERATING CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS...AND
INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER/STRATUS/SHRA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE (LOWER 80S TO AROUND
85). OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS LIFT DECREASES.
THE FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE SW AND IS A BIT MORE DRY/ TUESDAY
THEREFORE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND INCREASING WARM.
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF ITS
PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF IT...OR PERHAPS EVEN A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE
FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAIN...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MORE DRY...BUT NOT THAT MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
WINDS UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY SET UP AGAIN
SATURDAY...FROM 15Z THROUGH 21Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT...VFR.
SUN-MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
TUE-WED ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ARE FORECAST ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS AROUND
1-2 FT. AS THIS HIGH MOVES EAST...E TO SE WINDS OF 5-15 KTS WILL
PERSIST GRADUALLY CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD 3 TO 4 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY EVENING
THOROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND.
THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
INCREASE MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AS EARLY
AS WED MORNING...BUT MORE LIKELY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE A BIT GUSTY INTO FRIDAY..BUT IN GENERAL FLOW
WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A RAIN FALL OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY FROM WESTERN CT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND WEST ACROSS
THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF JULY 30TH...THE AVERAGE TEMP AT CENTRAL PARK IS
81.5. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR THE WARMEST JULY AND ALSO WARMEST MONTH
EVER AT CPK IS 81.4 SET IN 1999. CPK WOULD NEED TO AVERAGE AT LEAST
79 DEGREES TODAY TO BREAK THE RECORD...AND AVERAGE AT LEAST 76
DEGREES TO TIE THE RECORD. BASED ON FORECAST TODAY WE WILL COME
CLOSE TO TYING THE RECORD...WITH BREAKING THE RECORD SEEMINGLY OUT
OF REACH.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BS/PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...NV
CLIMATE...NV
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