FXUS61 KOKX 110930
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY WILL
APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM/...
BEST LIFT AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA COAST TO SE OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE...BUT ONE OR TWO BANDS OF OCNL MODERATE
SNOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER BOROUGHS OF NYC...LONG ISLAND
AND FAR SE CT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUMPED UP ACCUMS THERE...
TO 1-2 INCHES FAR ERN SUFFOLK AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES...AND AROUND
AN INCH ELSEWHERE. FARTHER NORTH EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND H5 TROUGH AXIS PASS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS
THAT COULD LEAVE AN ADDITIONAL QUICK COATING OF ACCUMULATION.
STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW
STRENGTHENS WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750 MB...
SO A BRIEF GUST TO 40-45 MPH AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ANY
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
LOW CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS MAKING TO WESTERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIP TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
QUITE COLD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TENS
TO LOWER 20S...AND HIGHS ONLY 30-35 ON SUNDAY. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRES TO THE NE AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE OH VALLEY...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WX AND A RETURN TO NEAR AVG TEMPS EXPECTED ON MON...WITH HIGH
PRES PASSING TO THE S AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT RETREATING NE.
UPPER PATTERN GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST LOOKS TO BE ON
TUE/TUE NIGHT AND THE SECOND WED/WED NIGHT. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT ON TUE...BUT IT
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES LOOK WARMER FOR WED.
THE 12Z EC IS ALSO INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM LATE NEXT WEEK. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.
LONG TERM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF COLD SNAP ON SUN WHERE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. THE STORM WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. THE TERMINALS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS. THE STORM HAS BE TRACKING FARTHER
TO THE EAST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN EAST OF THE AREA GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LIKELY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW TO N WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB VFR-POSSIBLE IN SCT LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AND RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT
N-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRES PASSING WELL TO THE SE.
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE LIKELY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS WILL BE
LESS LIKELY. THERE DOES HOWEVER REMAIN A CHANCE THAT SOME GUSTS
REACH GALE FORCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MON MORNING. OCEAN SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO SUBSIDE...SO MAY NEED SCA THERE INTO MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE ONGOING EVENT NOW LESS THAN 1/10
INCH NW OF NYC...AND 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
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