FXUS61 KLWX 191946
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY BEFORE PASSING 
BY TO OUR EAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR 
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A 
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FNT STRETCHING FM LERI...ACRS WVA...TO CSTL NC ATTM. BAND 
OF SHRA FM MRB/HGR-EZF/WALDORF ATTM...AHD OF SFC CNVGNC AND W/IN 
THTE RDG. THAT FORCING MECHANISM CONTAINS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT 
ELEV INSTBY TO PRODUCE EMBEDDED MDT-HVY RA PRODUCING TSRA. A CPL OF 
PEA HAIL REPORTS RECVD...AND CANT RULE OUT ANTHR ONE OR TWO SUCH 
REPORTS...MOSTLY PRIOR TO SUNSET. HV KEPT ISOL TSRA W/IN THTE RDG.

THE FNT ITSELF CONTAINS FVRBL SFC CNVGNC...BUT NOT THE UPA FORCING. 
PCPN PER RGNL RADAR MUCH MORE SPOTTY. THUS DO NOT HV QUITE THE 
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ASSOCIATED POPS TNGT. BUT...RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR 
WL BE AMPLE...WHICH WL CREATE A CURIOUS SITUATION THRU THE EVNG. 
FCST POPS HIER THAN MOS BUT LWR THAN CRRNT.

SINCE MOST OF THE SHRA HV MVD NE OF FLOOD WATCH AREA...HV OPTED TO 
CANX WATCH. SOME SHRA LKLY TO RDVLP/LINGER INTO THE EVNG...BUT RAFL 
RATES SHUD BE MUCH LESS THAN REALIZED ERLR TDA.

AFTR FROPA...WNDS WL BECOME WNW...WHICH SHUD ADVECT DRIER AIR EWD. 
THAT WUD SWEEP THE LAST VESTAGES OF PCPN AWAY...BUT UNSURE IF IT WL 
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. THAT/LL NEED TO BE AN ISSUE 
THE EVE FCSTR ADDRESSES. ATTM...HV PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS...MAINLY 
CENTRAL VA WHERE STP ESTIMATES HIEST.

MOS MIN-T HV BEEN RUNNING COOL OF LATE. PTTN CHG /FROPA/ MAY RIGHT 
THE SHIP AS CAA TAKES OVR. HWVR...SINCE I HV CONCERNS ABT FOG 
FORMATION...HV GONE ABV MOS ONCE AGN TNGT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY 
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO 
LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY BEFORE 
RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A 
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE 
END OF NEXT WEEK. 
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS ABOUND TAFTN...AND WL CONT INTO TNGT. BAND OF
PCPN MVG INTO METRO CRRDR ATTM...AND SHUD CONT THRU AFTN PUSH.
WSHFT WL COME LATER...03-07Z. HWVR...AMPLE BLYR MSTR MAY LEAD TO
AOB IFR THRU NGT...AS LOW CLD/FOG FORMATION MAY SEPARATE FEATURES
FM SFC. FCST HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND TAFS NOT WORST CASE-- DIDNT
WISH TO FCST VLIFR ALL NGT.

AFTR SUNRISE...MIXING WL ERODE WHATEVER LLVL MSTR REMAINS...W/ VFR 
THRU DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY 
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN 
ALONG WITH SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS STARTING TO ROUND THE BEND TO SELY. SPDS STILL AOB 10 KT. DONT 
SEE MOMENTUM FOR ANY MORE THAN 15 KT TNGT. DIR WL CONT TO VEER WLY 
BHD OCCLUDED FRNTL PASSAGE LT TNGT.

SCA WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL 
POTOMAC FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH 
SATURDAY. 

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS 
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG 
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR 
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES HV BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO GDNC FCSTS /ABT A FT ABV ASTRO 
NORMS/...WHICH TRANSLATES TO WATER JUST TOUCHING MINOR /ADVY/ LVLS 
AT HIGH TIDES FOR MID BAY/TIDAL PTMC SITES. LTL TO CHG FCST FOR THE 
PM CYCLE TNGT...SO WL KEEP ADVY GOING. ITS BORDERLINE AT BEST. WINDS 
WL SWING ARND TO THE WNW THEREAFTR...SO DONT THINK ADVYS WL BE REQD 
BYD THIS ONE. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WL BE TO MATCH ADVY W/ TIDE CYCLE IN 
UPR PTMC A BIT BETTER-- 1HR LONGER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016>018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     VAZ052>055-057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR 
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...HTS/BJL
MARINE...HTS/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS