FXUS61 KLWX 191946
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY BEFORE PASSING
BY TO OUR EAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FNT STRETCHING FM LERI...ACRS WVA...TO CSTL NC ATTM. BAND
OF SHRA FM MRB/HGR-EZF/WALDORF ATTM...AHD OF SFC CNVGNC AND W/IN
THTE RDG. THAT FORCING MECHANISM CONTAINS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT
ELEV INSTBY TO PRODUCE EMBEDDED MDT-HVY RA PRODUCING TSRA. A CPL OF
PEA HAIL REPORTS RECVD...AND CANT RULE OUT ANTHR ONE OR TWO SUCH
REPORTS...MOSTLY PRIOR TO SUNSET. HV KEPT ISOL TSRA W/IN THTE RDG.
THE FNT ITSELF CONTAINS FVRBL SFC CNVGNC...BUT NOT THE UPA FORCING.
PCPN PER RGNL RADAR MUCH MORE SPOTTY. THUS DO NOT HV QUITE THE
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ASSOCIATED POPS TNGT. BUT...RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR
WL BE AMPLE...WHICH WL CREATE A CURIOUS SITUATION THRU THE EVNG.
FCST POPS HIER THAN MOS BUT LWR THAN CRRNT.
SINCE MOST OF THE SHRA HV MVD NE OF FLOOD WATCH AREA...HV OPTED TO
CANX WATCH. SOME SHRA LKLY TO RDVLP/LINGER INTO THE EVNG...BUT RAFL
RATES SHUD BE MUCH LESS THAN REALIZED ERLR TDA.
AFTR FROPA...WNDS WL BECOME WNW...WHICH SHUD ADVECT DRIER AIR EWD.
THAT WUD SWEEP THE LAST VESTAGES OF PCPN AWAY...BUT UNSURE IF IT WL
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. THAT/LL NEED TO BE AN ISSUE
THE EVE FCSTR ADDRESSES. ATTM...HV PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS...MAINLY
CENTRAL VA WHERE STP ESTIMATES HIEST.
MOS MIN-T HV BEEN RUNNING COOL OF LATE. PTTN CHG /FROPA/ MAY RIGHT
THE SHIP AS CAA TAKES OVR. HWVR...SINCE I HV CONCERNS ABT FOG
FORMATION...HV GONE ABV MOS ONCE AGN TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS ABOUND TAFTN...AND WL CONT INTO TNGT. BAND OF
PCPN MVG INTO METRO CRRDR ATTM...AND SHUD CONT THRU AFTN PUSH.
WSHFT WL COME LATER...03-07Z. HWVR...AMPLE BLYR MSTR MAY LEAD TO
AOB IFR THRU NGT...AS LOW CLD/FOG FORMATION MAY SEPARATE FEATURES
FM SFC. FCST HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND TAFS NOT WORST CASE-- DIDNT
WISH TO FCST VLIFR ALL NGT.
AFTR SUNRISE...MIXING WL ERODE WHATEVER LLVL MSTR REMAINS...W/ VFR
THRU DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS STARTING TO ROUND THE BEND TO SELY. SPDS STILL AOB 10 KT. DONT
SEE MOMENTUM FOR ANY MORE THAN 15 KT TNGT. DIR WL CONT TO VEER WLY
BHD OCCLUDED FRNTL PASSAGE LT TNGT.
SCA WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES HV BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO GDNC FCSTS /ABT A FT ABV ASTRO
NORMS/...WHICH TRANSLATES TO WATER JUST TOUCHING MINOR /ADVY/ LVLS
AT HIGH TIDES FOR MID BAY/TIDAL PTMC SITES. LTL TO CHG FCST FOR THE
PM CYCLE TNGT...SO WL KEEP ADVY GOING. ITS BORDERLINE AT BEST. WINDS
WL SWING ARND TO THE WNW THEREAFTR...SO DONT THINK ADVYS WL BE REQD
BYD THIS ONE. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WL BE TO MATCH ADVY W/ TIDE CYCLE IN
UPR PTMC A BIT BETTER-- 1HR LONGER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
014-016>018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ052>055-057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...HTS/BJL
MARINE...HTS/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
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