FXUS61 KAKQ 281116
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...THEN
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL START THE DAY.
THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME
BREEZY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH COOLER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM CLIMBING THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
ACROSS INLAND VA AND NORTHEAST NC (LOW TO MID 50S LOWER EASTERN
SHORE) DUE TO THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 FROM LOUISA
TO HAMPTON ROADS. THERE IS SOME OMEGA/LIFT THROUGH THE CLOUD
DECK...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...THEREFORE LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AS WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO BRIEFLY DIP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWER THICKNESSES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO MUCH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S INLAND
VA/NORTHEAST NC AND UPPER 40S NORTHWEST AREAS/LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVELS THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE WEEK AS VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS AND A LITTLE LESS MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABV NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH SLGT CHC OR CHC FOR SHOWERS WED
AFTN THRU THU NGT. HI PRES RIGHT ALNG THE CST MON NGT...WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA FOR TUE INTO WED. A FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH INTO OR JUST TO
THE NW OF THE REGION LATE WED...THEN LO PRES AND AN ASSOC COLD FRNT
WILL APPROACH FM THE W LATE THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA
THU NGT...THEN PUSH OUT TO SEA ON FRI. INITIAL BNDRY WILL BRING SLGT
CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN INTO THU MORNG...WITH CHC POPS THU AFTN
THRU THU NGT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S TUE MORNG...AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S WED...THU AND FRI MORNGS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S TUE...IN THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S WED...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S THU...AND IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DRY CDFRNTL PASSAGE TONITE. WINDS SHIFT INTO NW AND GUST
TO NEAR 20 KT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTS IN A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING BCMG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT. SAID FRONT CROSSES THA MARINE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS BACK INTO THE NW. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ABT A 4-6 HOUR CAA SURGE SO HAVE ISSUED ANTHR SCA HEADLINE
JUST FOR TONITE. BUFFER DATA SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS MIXING
DOWN. GIVEN SHORT DURATION EVENT...SEAS ONLY REACH 4-5 FT...HIGHEST
OUT NEAR 20 NM.
SAME SETUP SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THEN OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. YET ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA'S EXPECTED SUN NITE INTO MONDAY MORN DUE TO A DECENT
CAA SURGE.
MORE OF THE SAME EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MON
MOVES OFFSHORE TUE. S-SW FLOW BLO SCA LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WHILE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-FEB) HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVG THUS FAR...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINTER TEMPERATURES
ARE FAR MORE VARIABLE THAN THE REST OF THE YEAR. EVEN WITH
TODAY'S WARM TEMPERATURES...JANUARY WILL NOT EVEN BE CLOSE TO
ATTAINING A TOP TEN WARMEST STATUS AT RICHMOND...AND ITS DOUBTFUL
THAT NORFOLK WILL EITHER. THE WARMEST JAN ON RECORD (1950) HAD AN
AVG TEMP OF 49.7 F...AND AN AVG DAILY HIGH OF 60.5 F AT RICHMOND.
NORFOLK'S VALUES WERE 53.3 F AND 62.5 F RESPECTIVELY. FOR THE
WINTER SEASON TO ATTAIN A TOP 10 STATUS...FEB WILL STILL NEED TO
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LKB/BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ
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