FXUS61 KAKQ 291957
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WX THIS AFTN...CLR SKIES PREVAIL
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. FOR
TONIGHT...FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE OF GDNC AS DEW PTS GNLY HAVE
VERIFIED HIGHER THAN MODELS OVER PAST 2 DAYS (AND MINS THE PAST 2
NIGHTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE GDNC). CONCERNING FOG...ANOTHER DAY OF
DRYING THIS AFTN HAS LIKELY MINIMIZED LOW LVL MSTR...SO SHOULD
ONLY SEE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG/MAINLY ACRS THE PIEDMNT. LOWS MAINLY
60-65...LOCALLY UPR 60S-NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEE LATEST TRACK FCST FROM NHC/TPC FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL SYSTEM
EARL...OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES THROUGH TUE...WITH SLIGHT
WEAKENING BY WED AS THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM EARL
APPROACHES FROM THE SE (BUT STILL IS WELL OFFSHORE). THIS PATTERN
PUTS AKQ CWA IN DRY SUBSIDENCE REGION THROUGH WED...ALONG WITH
RATHER HOT TEMPERATURES. STILL HAVE SIDED ON LOW END OF GDNC FOR
HIGHS AND WARMER END FOR LOWS AS MODELS (ESP GFS/MAV GDNC) APPEAR
TO BE GOING TOO DRY WITH THE AMT OF MSTR AND DEW PTS. STILL HOT
THOUGH...HIGHS MON/TUE LOOK TO BE IN THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COAST TO WELL INTO THE MID 90S INLAND...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S. SKIES REMAIN SUNNY TO MSUNNY. BY WED...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
MID LVL HGTS DROPPING A BIT AND CORE OF 850 MB TEMPS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BUT
OVERALL SHOULD AGAIN BE MSUNNY. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW
DEGREES WED...MAINLY IN THE UPR 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR-MID
90S WELL INLAND.
DESPITE A RETURN TO THE HEAT...AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO THAT
HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...AND RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/ECMWF MDLS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WHICH NOW ARE IN CLSR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FCST TRACK
OF TROP CYCLONE EARL. LATEST NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE
MDLS PREDICT...BUT THE MOVEMENT/POSITION OF THE STORM REMAINING FAR
ENUF E OF THE MID ATLC CST...IS CLS TO THE MDLS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
OF THU MORNG THRU FRI MORNG. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
EFFECTS FM THE STORM FOR OUR AREA CUD BE HIER SEAS...SOME CLDS AND
THE SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE ERN 1/3 OF THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF
A NRN STREAM TROF FM THE W FRI AFTN THRU SAT...WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACCELERATE EARL NNE INTO THE NRN ATLC WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRNT INTO
AND ACRS THE AREA. THE COLD FRNT CUD TRIGGER AN ISTLD SHRA OR TSRA
FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION
FOR SAT THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THU AND FRI...IN THE
MID 80S TO ARND 90 SAT...AND RANGING THRU THE 80S SUN. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S TO LWR 70S THU...FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN
THE 60S SUN MORNG.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING. BECAUSE CONDITIONS
ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GOING WITH PERSISTENCE AND PUTTING 4SM
VISIBILITIES FOR FOG AT KPHF ONLY. LOW FOG MAY DEVELOP AT OTHER
SITES FOR A BRIEF TIME MON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THU WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA THRU MON MORNG FOR THE CSTL WTRS FM CAPE CHARLES
LGT TO CURRITUCK BCH LGT FOR SEAS NEAR 5 FT. OTHRWISE...HI PRES WILL
REMAIN OVR THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER TNGT THRU WED. WNDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT...WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. INCRSNG WNDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THU THRU FRI FM TROPICAL SYSTEM
EARL MOVING NWRD E OF THE MID ATLC CST.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
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