FXUS61 KAKQ 070628
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PORTSMOUTH AND NORFOLK TO FROST ADVSY. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS OVRNIGHT THIS AREA CUD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST AS WELL. PREV DISC FOLLOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN. WITH
DEW PTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID-UPR 50
TO LWR 60S.
AS THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE RGN TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLR SKIES WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE A FEW HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...THIS
SHOULD NOT HAMPER FCSTD LOWS TNT AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER
SUNSET. KEPT SAME HEADLINES AS EARLIER TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND UPR 30S ALONG THE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S
ON SAT INLAND (UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST) AS A RETURN S-SW FLOW
STARTS TO DVLP. RETURN TO NEAR NRML LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 3S TO LOW 40S) FOR SAT NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
TRANQUIL DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN ON MON (SIMILAR TEMPS AS SUN)
WITH HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN'T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTRW...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...ARND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID
ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD
FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN
WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF SCA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH MORE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS...AND GREAT BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING NORTH OF REGION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO INCREASE THE SLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP CHANNELING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AOB 15 KTS ON THE BAY AND ~15 KTS ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>016-
030>032.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ017.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ070>094-096-
097-099.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...SMF/CCW/AM
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BKH/AM
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