FXUS61 KAKQ 041024
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL SETTING FOR OUTDOOR HOLIDAY/FAMILY ACTIVITIES TODAY.
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OFF AS NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE RGN LATE...LEADING TO P/C SKIES
TWRDS EVE. HIGHS TDY GENERALLY IN THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90...XCPT
LOW/MID 80S OVER THE ERN SHORE.
MID LVLS START TO SATURATE LATE THIS EVE OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA AS INITIAL WEAK SHRTWV MOVES OVERHD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS THIS EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/ISOL TSRAS DVLP.
SINCE PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL STILL EXIST IN THE BL...LOOK FOR
ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE SFC AT FIRST TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT/STRATIFORM. CURRENTLY THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AS AN
ASSCD STRONGER SHRTWV RIDE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE TN/OH
VLY ON SUN LEADING TO MUCH COOLER AND DAMP CONDITIONS (LOW-MID 70S)
TO OCCUR OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH HAVE CHCS OF
TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE
ANY SVR WX WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WEAK WRLY FLOW AT MID LVLS.
BEST CHS FOR ANYTHING SVR WILL BE OVER THE FAR S (GNRLY NC ZONES).
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD PUSHES SLOWLY NW/SE DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS WITH
A GENERAL SWATH OF A 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE PWATS WILL RISE
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN FAVORED LOW
LYING AREAS. FCST SNDGS SUPPORT IDEA THAT DRY AIR STARTS TO FILTER
INTO THE RGN FROM THE NW LATE EVE WHICH WILL MAKE FOR PRECIP TO
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT (--R/DZ). PRECIP LOOKS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT
NNW WHILE CONTINUE TILL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FAR S ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR XPCTD THRU AT LEAST 06Z. SCT CU XPCTD TO DVLP THIS AFTRN WITH
WNDS AOB 10 KTS. MID LVL DECK (AOA 12K FT) XPCTD TO OVRSPRD RGN
AFTR 00Z WITH SC (4-5K FT) DVLPNG AFTR 06Z. ALTHOUGH THERE CUD BE
SCT SHWRS ACROSS RGN AFTR 06Z...DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF PCPN
OUT OF THE 12Z ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
AREAS OF SHWRS AND PSBLE TS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA. LTST
DATA SHOWING PSBL IFR CIGS AT RIC AND SBY WITH MVFR CNDTNS ACROSS
SERN TAF SITES. A DRY PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS RETURN FOR MON
THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRS SLIDES E ACROSS WATERS.
NW WNDS 10-15 KTS THRU MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SW BY EVENING THEN
S TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG SYSTM FROM THE W. GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY ERLY THIS AM WERE HANDLED BY MWS.
LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ACROSS MID ATLNTC RGN SUN THEN OFF DELMARVA
COAST SUN NITE AND MON. SRLY FLOW CONTS AHEAD OF SYSTM SUN WITH WND
SPEEDS STILL BLO 20 KTS. FLOW BECOMES NRLY BEHIND SYSTM ONCE IT
EXITS OFF THE COAST SUN NITE. WILL KEEP WND SPEED BLO SCA LVLS FOR
NOW...BUT WUD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR NRLY SURGE BY 12Z MON. CALMER CNDTNS RETURN BY TUE AND WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
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