FXUS62 KJAX 310716
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN TODAY...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...
.SHORT TERM...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAD
BEEN POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA HAS SLIPPED SOUTH INTO THE GA
ZONES. ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS EXISTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO IN EXCESS OF 80 IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE DEPICTS THIS AREA NICELY FROM
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE GA ZONES. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND ARE ACTUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AT THIS HOUR. WILL
MAKE SOME SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS PRIOR TO FULL PACKAGE
RELEASE LATER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM THE GA
ACTIVITY MAY WELL GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PORTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...CURRENT CONVECTION THROWS A WRENCH
INTO THE PLANS AS FAR AS THE EXPECTED NORMAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY.
INSTEAD WILL FOCUS ON HOW CURRENT STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEW
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOUTH
OF CURRENT STORMS TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 10
CORRIDOR. WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING OVER SE
GA...TRANSITIONING TO AFOREMENTIONED FLORIDA ONES BY AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ENOUGH IN NATURE THAT AREAS THAT DO NOT
RECEIVE RAINFALL WILL STILL MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF I10. APPEARS DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX DOWN AS READILY AS
PREVIOUS DAYS AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF
112 THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MID AND UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES FURTHER ON SUNDAY...STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO ROTATE IN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WARRANTS A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS WITH 50% CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TO LIKELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES AS WELL. POPS WILL DIMINISH WITH
ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH
110 OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...ONCE HIGH BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CAROLINAS...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE OVER THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
HIGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH
OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT MOST TAF SITES. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
TSTMS AT JAX AREA SITES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NE FL.
&&
.MARINE...OTHER THAN NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES OF NEAR 15 KTS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 101 76 97 75 / 30 30 50 30
SSI 92 80 91 79 / 30 30 50 20
JAX 98 79 94 78 / 30 30 50 30
SGJ 93 80 92 79 / 30 20 40 20
GNV 98 77 98 76 / 40 20 40 30
OCF 96 77 97 77 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-
DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
WARE-WAYNE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
DEESE/CARROLL
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