FXUS62 KJAX 110831
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LAKE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS BY THE EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE MID 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. HAVE ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
WINDS STAY ELEVATED ALL NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS MAY NOT DROP AS LOW
AS FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME...IF THE WINDS STAY ELEVATED...A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COLD WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 50. A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AS WINDS DROP OFF.
WARMING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
RETURN SURFACE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT...
ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN. SO...EXPECTING READINGS ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SOUTHEAST GA THOUGH. A LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO RETAINED LOWER POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD.
THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THIS RUN...WITH CURRENT TIMING IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THUS AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UTILIZED THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS 06Z TAF
PERIOD. DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OR SO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL BRING THEM TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST
TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS...AND HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY AND SUNDAY TO CRITICAL
VALUES. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS LOW RH'S WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY...BUT
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 24 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 59 29 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 61 27 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 63 31 49 32 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 63 26 50 25 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 66 28 51 25 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
SUWANNEE-UNION.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
ST JOHNS.
GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-
PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
PRESNALL/STRUBLE
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