FXUS62 KMLB 310138
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
938 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. WITH 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL SO WARM IT REMAINS HARD TO COME CLOSE TO 
NORMAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EVEN THOUGH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 2.00". THIS WILL HOLD TRUE FOR 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. A FEW LOCATIONS DID PICK UP 
SOME NICE AMOUNTS BUT THIS WAS VERY ISOLATED. AT ANY RATE CONVECTION 
HAS WOUND DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO 
CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING. 

SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE GFS STILL SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE BUT 
WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE BELOW 
MOS POPS THAT ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. WEAKENING WEST 
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN SO EXPECT 
INTERIOR AREAS TO HAVE SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT WILL GO ISOLATED ALONG 
THE COAST.

THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT CONDITIONS DUE TO
EXPECTED LATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A REPORT FROM SEMINOLE
EM ABOUT INCREASED HEAT STRESS ADMISSIONS AT LOCAL EMERGENCY ROOMS...
HAVE LOOKED AT LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE. A LOCAL CRITERIA FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY (2 DAYS OR MORE OF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S) WAS
ADDED AFTER THE 1998 HEAT WAVE WHEN HEAT INDICES DID NOT MEET
THRESHOLDS. HAVE HAD A FEW DAYS WITH UPPER 90S HIGHS IN METRO
ORLANDO SO HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR OVERNIGHT. ISOLD CONVECTION SAT AFTN 20Z-24Z WITH 
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST 
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.  

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-SAT...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED 
SOUTH FOR THIS PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AT BUOY 
41009 WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND VEER TO THE 
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER EAST COAST SEA 
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND BACKING 
WINDS TO THE SSE/ESE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 1-2 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ALTHOUGH NO LOW RH VALUES 
HAVE OCCURRED...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE 
SPARKED SEVERAL BRUSH FIRES. THIS HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE 
COAST WHERE WET SEASON RAINFALL IS RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND 
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WITH STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED BE BELOW 
NORMAL AND LITTLE/NO STORM MOVEMENT THERE COULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKE 
FIRES AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PROMOTING FIRE 
SPREAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...A QUICK PRELIMINARY LOOK AT COMBINED JUN-JUL AVERAGE
TEMPS LOOKS LIKE DAB/MCO/MLB/VRB WILL HAVE THE 2ND OR 3RD HOTTEST
PERIOD ON RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPS FOR JUL LOOK TO BE THE 2ND TO 4TH 
HOTTEST EXCEPT FOR THE 8 HOTTEST AT MCO. DETAILED INFO WILL BE
POSTED WHEN DATA IS FINALIZED IN EARLY AUGUST.

RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT JULY 31:

DAYTONA BEACH   98   1999 
ORLANDO        100   1961
MELBOURNE       98   1961
VERO BEACH      95   1999

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE-
     SEMINOLE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI