FXUS62 KMLB 310138
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
938 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL SO WARM IT REMAINS HARD TO COME CLOSE TO
NORMAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 2.00". THIS WILL HOLD TRUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. A FEW LOCATIONS DID PICK UP
SOME NICE AMOUNTS BUT THIS WAS VERY ISOLATED. AT ANY RATE CONVECTION
HAS WOUND DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO
CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.
SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE GFS STILL SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE BUT
WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE BELOW
MOS POPS THAT ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. WEAKENING WEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN SO EXPECT
INTERIOR AREAS TO HAVE SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT WILL GO ISOLATED ALONG
THE COAST.
THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT CONDITIONS DUE TO
EXPECTED LATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A REPORT FROM SEMINOLE
EM ABOUT INCREASED HEAT STRESS ADMISSIONS AT LOCAL EMERGENCY ROOMS...
HAVE LOOKED AT LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE. A LOCAL CRITERIA FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY (2 DAYS OR MORE OF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S) WAS
ADDED AFTER THE 1998 HEAT WAVE WHEN HEAT INDICES DID NOT MEET
THRESHOLDS. HAVE HAD A FEW DAYS WITH UPPER 90S HIGHS IN METRO
ORLANDO SO HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR OVERNIGHT. ISOLD CONVECTION SAT AFTN 20Z-24Z WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-SAT...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH FOR THIS PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AT BUOY
41009 WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND BACKING
WINDS TO THE SSE/ESE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 1-2 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ALTHOUGH NO LOW RH VALUES
HAVE OCCURRED...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
SPARKED SEVERAL BRUSH FIRES. THIS HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE
COAST WHERE WET SEASON RAINFALL IS RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND
TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WITH STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED BE BELOW
NORMAL AND LITTLE/NO STORM MOVEMENT THERE COULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKE
FIRES AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PROMOTING FIRE
SPREAD.
&&
.CLIMATE...A QUICK PRELIMINARY LOOK AT COMBINED JUN-JUL AVERAGE
TEMPS LOOKS LIKE DAB/MCO/MLB/VRB WILL HAVE THE 2ND OR 3RD HOTTEST
PERIOD ON RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPS FOR JUL LOOK TO BE THE 2ND TO 4TH
HOTTEST EXCEPT FOR THE 8 HOTTEST AT MCO. DETAILED INFO WILL BE
POSTED WHEN DATA IS FINALIZED IN EARLY AUGUST.
RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT JULY 31:
DAYTONA BEACH 98 1999
ORLANDO 100 1961
MELBOURNE 98 1961
VERO BEACH 95 1999
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ORANGE-
SEMINOLE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
|