FXUS62 KMFL 310640
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS STILL LOCATED
OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA TODAY ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
NORTHEAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CARRY A 20
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT A CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA.
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
EASTERN AREAS TO WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY WHICH
WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE. MORE ON THIS IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
BOTH THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE AREA TO GET BACK TO
A EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY WITH SOUTHERN WINDS OVER THE CWA AND THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. ON MONDAY...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND ALLOW FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RETURN TO THE EAST
COAST AREAS.
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
EAST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE HIGHS AND LOWS WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 OVER THE EAST COAST
AREAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS. THE LOWS WILL ALSO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
THE EAST COAST AREAS WITH 70S OVER REST OF THE CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE CWA WATERS...BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHEAST
TO EAST DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BOATING WEATHER
SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD GET DOWN TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR
COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS...DUE TO
THE DRIER AIR AND THE VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. REST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. SO NO PROBLEM WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGH AND RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST
AREAS TODAY.
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIA 95 95 - 1999
FLL 94 96 - 1988
PBI 95 96 - 1990
MIA BEACH 93 93 - 1999
SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR
TODAY IN THE ZONES.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 95 77 93 79 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 94 79 92 81 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 95 78 93 80 / 20 10 30 20
NAPLES 90 80 91 78 / 20 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RGH
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