FXUS62 KTBW 310650
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AND
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO
SHIFT BACK UP OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.

SO FOR TODAY...A WEST FLOW MEANS MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT 
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER INLAND PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT...HIGHS 
WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS 
ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN 
THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THE FACT THAT MANY SITES IN 
PINELLAS COUNTY AND A FEW SITES IN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY ALSO HAVE NOT 
SEEN MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY 
FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SEE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD TEMPS AT SELECT SITES...RECORDS AT A FEW SITES MAY
DEFINITELY BE CHALLENGED TODAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT HAVE CONTINUED 40 PERCENT POPS FOR 
NOW UNTIL WE SEE WHAT TODAY BRINGS. HAVE KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A 
DEGREE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT HEAT 
INDICIES WILL STILL LIKELY BE AROUND 105-107 DEGREES. 

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...AND WITH LIGHT WIND 
FLOW AS WELL AS A GOOD INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SCATTERED 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE 
LOW-END SCATTERED RANGE. WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 
PERIOD KEEPING GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AN UPPER HIGH WILL 
REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING 
A DRIER NE FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST 
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND OVER THE GULF FRIDAY. POPS WILL 
GENERALLY REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG SEA 
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S 
FOR HIGHS AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR LOWS. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH LIGHT W/SW FLOW BECOMING 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW 
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS 
POSSIBLY CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. 

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AROUND THE 
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GENERALLY WEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH 
OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE 
RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 31 JULY...
TAMPA              96 SET IN 1958 
SAINT PETERSBURG   96 SET IN 1961 
LAKELAND           97 SET IN 1999 
SARASOTA           96 SET IN 1998 
FORT MYERS         97 SET IN 1982

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  92  79 /  30  20  30  20 
FMY  91  77  93  78 /  30  20  30  20 
GIF  95  77  94  77 /  40  20  40  20 
SRQ  92  78  92  78 /  30  20  30  20 
BKV  94  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  20 
SPG  93  81  92  81 /  30  20  30  20 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON