FXUS62 KTBW 110917
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
...LAKE WIND AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FREEZE WATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA. GETTING SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH ALREADY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN PLACE AND
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY REACH THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING PASCO
COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AS THE COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH BELOW
FREEZING FOR 2-4 HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS AND WINDS WEAKENING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST AND WILL
LIKELY NEED A HARD FREEZE WARNING THROUGH PASCO COUNTY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THERE...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT UPPER 30S
NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TUESDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GENERATING A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. U/L RIDGING WILL
TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER U/L DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
TAMPA. U/L SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LCL IFR CIGS. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
SUNRISE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-120 LATER THIS
MORNING WITH LCL BKN 025-030 OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL
CLEAR LATER TODAY WITH LCL BKN 025-035 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE SCA STARTING AT 7AM FOR ALL OF
THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT TAMPA BAY. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TAMPA BAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN SCEC IN PLACE. THE SCA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA...THEN WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES
INTO THE SE US. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTHERN FL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES
MAY NECESSITATE A RFW. AN RFD WILL OTHERWISE LIKELY BE NECESSARY
FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE BY TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 36 55 35 / 5 0 0 0
FMY 73 40 61 39 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 69 34 55 34 / 5 0 0 0
SRQ 69 38 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 67 30 53 23 / 5 0 0 0
SPG 67 44 54 43 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CITRUS-
HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...13/OGLESBY
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