FXUS62 KMFL 110922
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
...MUCH DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY...
...WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...
.SHORT TERM...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...AND THIS TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
THIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOWS
TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY EXIT THE
REGION BEFORE 12Z...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR
IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS REALLY BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ARKANSAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
FOR TODAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING FROM 1380-1390 THIS MORNING
TO 1348-1364 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE...BUT MAY START TO FALL OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH
1000-850MB THICKNESS OF 1312-1336 BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING AN ADVECTION FREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN GLADES
COUNTY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE 10TH PERCENTILE FROM THE EKDMOS
SHOWS 30-32 DEGREES AND 10TH PERCENTILE FROM GEFS HAS 31-33
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. AN ADVECTION
FREEZE IS PRETTY RARE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS GLADES
COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND COLLIER AND INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25 TO 35 DEGREES FOR 4 HOURS OR LONGER. METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY
MAY LATER NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO GET AROUND 35 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT FOR NOW LEFT THEM OUT. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTHEAST.
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35-38 DEGREES ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY...35-45 DEGREES ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...36-42
ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY...AND 37-46 ACROSS MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
FOR SUNDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY FROM THE
MORNING. SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE COASTLINE...AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THERE. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS GLADES
COUNTY...AND THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING MOVE OVER APF AT 05Z. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
REACHING THE ERN TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z AFTER WHICH TIME GUIDANCE INDICATE CEILINGS LIFTING TO
VFR CONDITIONS BU REMAINING AROUND 5 KFT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT FROM W TO NW AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12/00Z
SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR KAPF.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY SWELL OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BUT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF MUCH DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST
ZONES BUT POSSIBLY IN ALL ZONES. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR SUSTAINED RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE HOURS. IF THE 20 FOOT WINDS STAY ABOVE 15 MPH...A
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AND POSSIBLY FOR ALL ZONES. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 43 61 47 / 10 0 - 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 47 64 51 / 10 0 - -
MIAMI 76 50 64 51 / 20 0 - 0
NAPLES 73 44 60 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM
BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO
PALM BEACH.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GLADES-
HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND PALM BEACH.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF
THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH,
FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR BISCAYNE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE,
FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH,
FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
|
