FXUS64 KMEG 110538
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
DETROIT BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KNQA WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS SHOW DRIZZLE HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A QUICK BURST OF DRIZZLE AND/OR PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME INFRARED/11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG/BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. WILL
MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THESE SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN BACK THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 6 PM CST ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. KNQA WSR-
88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION OVER
TO DRIZZLE AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE MID
SOUTH. THUS...ADJUSTED FORECAST TO MENTION AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY PUBLISHED.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME EAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO FAR EAST TEXAS.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME OF THE RAIN MAY
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE BEFORE ENDING. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BUT
AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL
WEEKS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY IN THE 30S. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER
WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 DEGREES BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRINGING A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET
UP AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BE
VERY DRY AND IT MAY TAKE QUITE A WHILE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. ONCE IT DOES...IT SHOULD START OUT IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE NUMEROUS ISSUES REGARDING TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH SNOW...SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. BY MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK SOME TO NEAR FREEZING SO THERE MAY BE A CHANGE FROM RAIN BACK
TO SOME FORM OF WINTER PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO RAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE FREEZING. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ARS
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MEM...MKL FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...AND AT TUP THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z...BUT OTHERWISE THE ONLY
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SPEEDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 24 34 19 38 / 30 0 0 0
MKL 23 32 15 36 / 30 0 0 0
JBR 23 32 18 35 / 10 0 0 0
TUP 27 37 18 40 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
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