FXUS65 KFGZ 110352
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST FRI FEB 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS..A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES... A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE NOTED ACROSS NRN AZ
TONIGHT. FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR PCPN STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT. NO
UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION (300 PM)...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN AS FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BRING HIGHER WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH FAIR CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UTAH BORDER TO THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THE NAVAJO
NATION. SNOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
5500 TO 6000 FEET WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH
ABOVE 6000 FEET. A 10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS A COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
ON MONDAY...STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AS A SECOND TROUGH
APPROACHES ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST WITH 40'S ABOVE 6000 FEET AND 50'S TO LOWER 60'S IN THE
VALLEYS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE NEXT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SECOND LOW IS A BIT DEEPER
AND COLDER THAN THE FIRST SYSTEM AND THE LATEST MODEL TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER DOWN TO AROUND
5000 FEET ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARIZONA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
ANOTHER TROUGH BRINGS A THIRD ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SKY COVER SKC-SCT200 UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN NORTHWEST AZ...WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW10-20G30 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC............DB/BOHLIN
AVIATION..........DB/DJO
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
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