FXUS65 KVEF 110507 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
906 PM PST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A PARADE OF STORMS IS HEADED TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 
WEEK WITH THE FIRST...WEAKER SYSTEM SET FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL 
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN 
INCREASE IN WIND. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL 
STRONGER...COLDER SYSTEMS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN 
FURTHER COOLING...MORE WIND AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW 
THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COMING 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING EXITING EAST 
ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AS TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A SHALLOW AND NARROW 
PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING INTO COASTAL 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT NEVER DO GET PULLED INTO INCOMING 
TROUGH. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST AREAS BY 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION COULD BE NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE 
COUNTY WHERE A TENTH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. WEST TO 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS STRONGER BELT OF 
WINDS WILL ALIGN OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO 
COUNTY...MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH 
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. NO 
ADVISORY PRODUCTS EXPECTED. DEEPER MIXING WILL OFFSET THE LOWER 
HEIGHTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW. CLOSER TO 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY. WEEKEND PACKAGE IS 
FINE...NO UPDATE NECESSARY.       
&&

.AVIATION...MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WIND 5-7KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO LATE 
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AS A STORM 
SYSTEM APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH FEW-SCT 080 AND SCT-BKN120-140. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED 
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...BUT THE SPRING MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW 
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10KTS AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20KTS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER 
OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND 
SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS DOWN TO 10-12K FEET AT 
TIMES. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE 
SIERRA...ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 PM PST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS OUR WEEKEND STORM 
TAKING SHAPE NEAR 40N/135W. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE 
RELATIVELY SMALL BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL DATA. THERE 
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER MAINLY THE AREA MOUNTAINS BUT 
REALLY ANYPLACE COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER 
THE REGION. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET 
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEGREES CELSIUS OR WARMER. DAYTIME 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER ON 
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OF 
COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER 
THE MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THEY 
WILL REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST AREAS.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY AND DETAILS ABOUT THIS STORM WILL BE COVERED 
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. 

.LONG TERM...RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WILL GET PUSHED EAST 
AS A CLOSED LOW DIVES DOWN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL 
HELP BRING INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON 
ALONG WITH OUR LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK. NO REAL MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HAVE NOT 
LEANED MORE TOWARD ONE SPECIFIC MODEL AND JUST WENT WITH A BLEND OF 
ALL. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO 
BE RATHER WIDESPREAD AHEAD AND CLOSE TO THE LOW AND HAVE UPPED THE 
POPS GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS 
WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY AND 15Z TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO 
FORECAST TO DROP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL LOWER SNOW 
LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND -7 
INITIALLY AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT THEN FALL 
TO AROUND -10 AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS COULD DROP SNOW 
LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3000-3500 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AS 
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF...BUT SOME VALLEY FOOTHILL LOCATIONS 
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH 
EAST TUESDAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. WITH 
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ALL DAY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY. MODELS ARE 
INDICATION A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTH BEHIND THE FIRST 
LOW WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR...BUT NOT 
REALLY BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. RIDGING IS FORECAST 
TO START REBUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING 
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/GORELOW

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS