FXUS66 KSGX 110542
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL AND 
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO THE 
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE 
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A LOT MORE CLOUDS. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS 
WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

BOTH LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING THIS EVENING COMING FROM THE 
WEST. THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SOME RANDOM FASHION ARE EXPECTED TO FILL 
MOST OF THE COASTAL BASIN TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE 
MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...BUT SOME PLACES WILL MANAGE 
TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAIN...MOST LIKELY IN 
THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM 
WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY 
LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
BEEN BACKING OFF THE WIND SPEED LATELY. TEMPS WILL BE WAY DOWN BELOW 
AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. 
THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY. THIS ONE IS MORE 
COMPLEX...CONTAINING VARIOUS SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND 
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. ONE WAVE COULD PRODUCE WIND AND RAIN 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SECOND WAVE AROUND MIDDAY 
TUESDAY. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM ALSO HAS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...BUT MORE 
THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM DOES. AND EXPECT ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG 
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO SOMETHING...BUT NOT 
MUCH WITH MOUNTAIN SLOPES GETTING UP TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. A 
THIRD WAVE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT WOULD KEEP US IN A COLD AIR 
MASS. SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO 
REBUILD TO BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
115000Z...OVER AND WEST OF MTS...BKN-OVC STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO 
SPREAD INLAND AND AFFECT COASTAL AIRPORTS. STRATUS BASES ARE 
CURRENTLY 700-1000 FT MSL...BUT EXPECTED TO RAISE THROUGHOUT THE 
NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT MSL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS 
NEAR. VIS WILL RANGE TONIGHT BETWEEN 4-6 MILES AT A MAJORITY OF THE 
INLAND AND COASTAL AIRPORTS. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST 
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFT 11/1200Z WITH NO SIGNIFICANT BREAK UP OF 
STRATUS THROUGH 12/0000Z. BASES OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS SATURDAY 
BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT MSL.      

DESERTS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 25 KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AFT 
11/1800Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION 
CONCERNS.
  
&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10 FEET IN BOTH THE 
INNER AND OUTER WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
OVER 25 KT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE OUTER WATERS FROM SATURDAY 
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE CRITERIA FOR EITHER 
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND/OR WINDS WILL BE MET OVER THE OUTER WATERS...ZONE 
PZZ775...SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE INNER WATERS...ZONE 
PZZ750...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY 
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. 

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE 
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE 
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN 
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN 
THE      ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO 
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR 
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER 
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 
     AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT 
     TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT